Written Friday 09/02/2007

OVERVIEW WEEK ONE,  TIPS ROUND 2.

The resting of the All Blacks for the first six rounds of Super 12 has opened the competition right up to other sides.  The Crusaders were way off the pace on Friday night,  at least to their standards,  and after six weeks they could languish in the bottom half of the table. 

I have no doubt that the resting policy is going to harm their provincial sides chances in the Super 14, and they may be too far out of it to make a comeback by the time the big guns return.  Their problem,  not ours. 

The Hurricanes,  minus Collins,  So’oialo and Masoe did not look particularly fierce,  and I wonder if the Reds pack may have been bashed into submission if these tough guys were playing.  We’ll never know and it has given the Reds a big leg up,  some confidence to go out and do it again. 

The Reds have a great chance to beat the Crusaders,  probably a better chance than ever before,  and claim one of those away scalps so desperately needed in this competition.  A bonus point win would be even better,  but it is difficult to see the Reds scoring four tries with the style they are playing and going to play.  That is precisely what the Reds don’t want to do,  start thinking about bonus point wins,  or bonus points for losses,  win first,  let the bonus point take care of itself.  As for the bonus point for the loss,  worry about winning the game. 

I think the Reds can win this one,  and am very cautiously going to tip them with the Crusaders not having their full compliment. 

The Brumbies have a must win fixture in Canberra against the Blues,  must win,  can win and should win.  The Blues are a good side and will be looking to pick up this fixture,  but some of that loose structure may run them into trouble against  a side with Steve Larkham returning,  and a side that was very accurate last week in New Zealand.  They played some good footy and were a little more expansive than many sides.  This should be a great game,  and I will tip the Brumbies,  just. 

The Waratahs have the opportunity to scratch out their second win in South Africa,  which will stand them in very good stead for the season going forwards.  The Sharks are expected to be one of the Gun sides out of Africa and spanked the massive Bulls pack last weekend.  Again the Waratahs can do this,  but it will be tough in Africa.  This will be a close one and I think the Sharks may just get it on home advantage. 

The Force are off to Africa to play the Stormers who would be smarting from their first round spanking from the Cheetahs.  I think the Force will struggle as much away from home as it does at home,  the Stormers for this one at home over the Force. 

The Chiefs and The Hurricanes will be close,  I might just lean to the Chiefs there,  I think the Cheetahs over the Bulls and the Lions over the Highlanders.

On the back of my last week’s tipping efforts of 2 from 7,  it would be wise not to take too much notice.  I only got the Brumbies and the Waratahs last week (yes I tipped the Force and would genuinely like them to succeed) and this,  round two,  looks to be an even tougher round to pick,  with a number of games poised to go either way.

The Man at the Top of the Mountain Didn't Fall There!